A full tank for a mid-size sedan now runs about $62 at the national average, up from roughly $48 a year ago. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly fuel price survey for the week ending April 21, regular gasoline averaged $4.12 per gallon nationwide. That marks the first time the national average has crossed $4 since the summer of 2022, when prices briefly topped $5 during the initial shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The driver this time is different in origin but familiar in effect: war-driven disruptions in the Middle East are choking oil supply routes and keeping crude locked above $100 a barrel. Three major international bodies published reports in April 2026 reaching essentially the same conclusion, and none sees relief arriving soon.

The timing stings. Memorial Day weekend is weeks away, and AAA projected earlier this spring that summer road-trip volume would match or exceed last year’s record levels. Households already stretched by years of elevated grocery and housing costs are now watching the pump price climb in real time.

Why prices are this high

Brent crude, the global benchmark, broke above $100 per barrel in early March as the ongoing conflict involving Iran disrupted both oil production and tanker traffic near the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman handles roughly a fifth of the world’s traded petroleum, according to EIA estimates, making it the single most important chokepoint in global energy.

The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 7, reported that Brent averaged $103 for the full month of March. The agency attributes the elevated prices to what it calls a sustained risk premium tied to supply uncertainty and projects that crude could remain above $100 through the second quarter of 2026.

The International Energy Agency’s April oil market report describes the physical side of that premium. Buyers are scrambling for alternative cargoes as Hormuz transit remains unreliable, pushing up spot prices and widening the cost gap between Middle Eastern grades and substitutes from West Africa and the Americas. Shipping routes are lengthening, tying up tankers and adding freight costs that eventually land at the pump.

The World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook frames the situation in broader terms, warning that the Middle East conflict is delivering a significant shock through global commodity markets. Energy prices, the bank says, are projected to climb further this year, with knock-on effects for food costs, transportation, and inflation worldwide.

That three institutions with different mandates and methodologies arrived at the same conclusion in the same month is worth noting. It suggests the price pressure is structural, rooted in real supply constraints, not a speculative bubble that could pop on a single diplomatic headline.

The OPEC+ factor

Adding to the supply picture is the question of what OPEC+ will do. The producer alliance had been gradually unwinding voluntary output cuts through early 2026, but the Hormuz disruptions have complicated that timeline. Several member states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have spare production capacity that could theoretically offset lost Iranian barrels. Whether they choose to deploy it, and how quickly, will shape prices through the summer. As of late April, OPEC+ had not announced any emergency production increase in response to the crisis.

What the data still cannot answer

None of the April reports quantifies exactly how many barrels per day have been taken off the market by the Hormuz disruptions. The IEA describes uncertainty around restoring flows but stops short of publishing a reduction figure. Without that number, it is impossible to model precisely how much higher prices could go or how fast they would fall if shipping lanes reopened.

Official production data from Iran reflecting the conflict’s impact has not been released publicly. Reporting from the Associated Press describes the war as impeding output and exports, but the specific fields, terminals, and volumes affected are inferred from market signals rather than government disclosures. That distinction matters: a temporary rerouting of tanker traffic carries very different price implications than sustained damage to export infrastructure.

On the demand side, there is a gap as well. No federal agency has published survey data on whether $4-plus gasoline is changing driving habits, delaying vacation plans, or pushing more buyers toward electric vehicles. The EIA’s forecast assumes demand patterns hold steady, but if consumers pull back sharply, the price ceiling could arrive sooner than the models suggest.

Then there is the supply response from producers outside the Middle East. U.S. shale operators, Canadian oil sands projects, and deepwater platforms off Brazil’s coast have historically ramped up when prices stay elevated, but new drilling takes months to translate into barrels at the pump. None of the April reports offers a firm timeline for how much additional supply could come online if $100-plus oil persists through year’s end.

Where you live changes what you pay

The national average smooths over enormous regional differences. Gasoline in California, where state taxes and a cap-and-trade program add to the base cost, was already averaging above $5.30 in late April, according to AAA’s state-by-state tracker. Gulf Coast states, sitting closer to major refining capacity, were running near $3.70. Drivers in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest fell somewhere in between.

That spread means the $4.12 headline number understates the pain in high-cost states and overstates it in cheaper ones. For a family in Los Angeles filling up a minivan, the weekly fuel bill is already well above $80. For a commuter in Houston, it is closer to $55.

What drivers should watch through May 2026

For anyone trying to plan around these prices, the institutional consensus offers a sobering outlook: elevated fuel costs are likely to persist for months, not weeks. The EIA, IEA, and World Bank all build their central forecasts around a gradual easing of Middle East tensions and some normalization of shipping, but each also outlines scenarios where the conflict widens or infrastructure suffers new damage, pushing prices higher still.

Key signals to monitor include any OPEC+ emergency production announcements, updates on Hormuz shipping lane status from maritime tracking services, and the EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook in May. If Brent crude stays above $100 through mid-May, the chances of sub-$4 gasoline this summer drop sharply.

Until there is concrete evidence that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are moving freely and consistently again, the forces holding gasoline above $4 are not going away. That is not a forecast. It is what the data, as of late April 2026, supports.